Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud held talks with President William Ruto in Nairobi in his last leg of his visits to the Troops Contributing Countries in the Horn of Africa.
Prior to the Nairobi visit, President Mohamud held talks with Uganda President Yoweri Museveni in Nakasero, Burundi’s Evariste Ndayishimiye and Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh.
All talking points the meetings had a denominator: Regional peace, security and stability, Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland in the realm of respect for “territorial integrity, sovereignty and interference” and the change of African Union Transition Mission in Somalia to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia ahead of the December drawback deadline.
It also came at a time when Somalia row with Ethiopia is fast escalating following the signing of an MoU in which Somaliland would lease 19km of its coastline to Ethiopia.
Somalia termed this as an aggression on its territory, as it considers Somaliland as its territory. Ties have further escalated after the Addis Ababa sent an ambassador to the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Ethiopia named Teshome Shunde as its ambassador to Hargeisa, who has already presented his credentials to Somaliland leader Muse Bihi.
In addition, the foundation stone for Somaliland’s embassy in Addis Ababa was laid on October 17, by Somaliland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Essa Kayd on land donated by Ethiopia government.
This came three months after Addis Ababa upgraded its consulate in Hargeisa into a full-fledged embassy. This is unprecedented and indicates that Ethiopia has moved ahead to recognize Somaliland as a state, much to the chagrin of Somalia.
In April 2024, the Somali government expelled Ethiopia’s ambassador and has maintained that Ethiopia must pull out all its troops on Somalia soil by January 2025 largely due to the controversial Port deal.
The hostilities are happening on the background of historical disputes in the region such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam row between Ethiopia and Egypt, the maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia whose ICJ ruling is yet to be implemented, the ongoing Sudan war and the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Important to note, Somaliland will be holding elections on November 13, 2024, in which Ethiopia ally Bihi, will be seeking re-election.
At the same time, it is at a critical time when the drawback of troops from Somalia is ongoing towards the ATMIS transition to AUSSOM. In this regard, Somalia has made it clear that it won’t be allowing Ethiopian troops into the mission.
In fact, President Mohamud’s recent visit to the region is linked to this.
ETHIOPIA ESCALATING TENSIONS
On October 16, Ethiopia hosted a ministerial meeting of AU Troop Contributing Countries to ATMIS — Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya, and Uganda— reportedly without notifying or inviting Somalia. This triggered Mogadishu to respond with the shuttle diplomacy, and put forward their case.
At the conclusion of the visits in Nairobi on Wednesday, Somalia Foreign Affairs ministry in a statement reiterated its commitment to protecting its sovereignty in the transition of to AUSSOM.
“Ethiopia’s recent unilateral actions, including an illegal agreement with Somalia’s northern region, violate our sovereignty and erode the trust essential for peacekeeping,” Somalia Foreign ministry said.
The statement further accused past Ethiopian deployments of leading to “increased Al Shabaab activity and little development”.
“As we prepare for the next phase of peacekeeping under upcoming AUSSOM, it is essential to reiterate that Somalia, as a sovereign state, holds authority to decide which Troop Partner Nation (TPNs) will contribute troops to this mission.
“The decision on troop contributions must align with Somalia’s national interests and preservation of its sovereignty,” it added
The ripple effects have seen the entry of Egypt, which taking advantage of its disputed over GERD, has signed a defence pact with Somalia and offered to send troops to the country.
Further, a tripartite axis of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea against Ethiopia has emerged.
A meeting in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, on October 10 called by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and included his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somalia’s Mohamud agreed to boost cooperation for regional security.
They also agreed to the “unequivocal respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the countries of the region”.
While it is acknowledged that negotiations could provide a solution to the conflict, Somalia has maintained that the bare minimum is for Ethiopia to renounce the deal with Somaliland. An offer by President William Ruto to media has already been rejected by Mogadishu, while,
Attempts by Turkey in Ankara have stalled.
It thus emerges there is a very serious crisis in the Horn of Africa, which could potentially destabilize the region, amidst an ongoing war in Sudan and the instability in South Sudan.
Al Shabaab could also take advantage of gaps in the transition as well as the conflict to undo progress made in the last almost two decades.
IMPERIALIST ATTITUDE
Regional analysts accuse Ethiopia of imperialist attitude not only to explore Somalia as the weakest link in its access to the sea but also disregarded international rule-based order, the inviolability of colonial-based borders. It is unprecedented.
Somalia is no longer diplomatically side-lined- successful in exposing Ethiopia as attempting to dismember it. It has secured the support of IGAD, AU, Arab League, the EU, the US and China.
And while Ethiopia is turmoil domestically, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sees himself as the successor of Menelik and has put his focus on Somaliland through the MoU thus creating a crisis.
For Somalia, any attempt by Ethiopia to build a military base in Somaliland is untenable as it considers it its territory, and the international community is not in support as the move will be seen as a major violation of the territorial integrity.
Some regional and middle powers have already started taking positions, with Egypt and Turkey coming out to support Somalia through the defence pacts, while Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar involvement will internationalise the conflict
Somaliland is the heart of Somalia – culture, poetry, language — and losing it would mean it ceases to exist as we know it.
It therefore means any further push by Ethiopia will not only worsen its ties with Somalia but further destabilise the region.
