By Patrick Kariuki
Drones are the new weapons of war, causing military tactics and force structure to be reimagined. They bring a particularly deadly reality to guerrilla warfare, posing an existential threat in many theaters, especially in the Middle East. Cities are defenseless.
It is the reason Morocco has warned Iranian drones are being deployed in North Africa. Moroccan diplomats are actively raising the issue with Western governments, saying Iran in collusion with Algeria, is supplying the Polisario Front rebels who are engaged in a conflict against Morocco over the Kingdom’s position in Western Sahara.
While the world was mesmerized by its nuclear programme, Iran built itself into a powerful supplier of military drones to the insurgents of the world. Notably, of course, to Russia for use in Ukraine but also to its proxies across the Middle East.
Iran’s experience with drones goes back to the war Iran and Iraq fought between 1980 and 1988. In those days, drones were line-of-sight, simplistic and only good for surveillance.
Since then, Iran has built generations of drones, large and small, but increasingly sophisticated. They were helped by captured U.S. drones, which they re-engineered, incorporating the latest technology.
The Iranian military claims that its defense industrial complex can make the engines and all the parts of its drones domestically. One way or another, Iran now supplies an impressive array of drones with great loitering times and long delivery distances.
Iran has come to the conclusion that its strength is not in force-on-force competition but in aiding asymmetric conflicts and they have hit upon drones as the evolution of precisely this strategy.
Drones are light, cheap and easily transported and hidden. Today’s generation of Iranian drones can carry substantial ballistic loads, loitering for as long as 24 hours and sending back vital material on critical infrastructure.
Morocco is right to be worried about its new vulnerability. Drones, while they might not win a war, can inflict severe damage on various targets, from tourist centers to military installations to vital power grids and power stations.
There is a drone arms race taking place in the Middle East. After Iran, the largest manufacturer of drones in the region is Turkey — even small but wealthy countries like the United Arab Emirates are building drone manufacturing capabilities. Turkish drones were critical in Azerbaijan’s recent conflict with Armenia and used by both sides in the Libyan conflict.
What is lacking is adequate defenses against drone attacks, whether these are single mischief-making assaults or swarms designed for substantial damage.
The only effective defensive system against drones is the Israeli “Iron Dome,” built with Israeli technology and assisted and financed by the United States.
But Israel has so far been reluctant to sell the Iron Dome, which catches low-flying projectiles fired from as close as 2.5 miles from the place of intercept.
As Morocco is a signatory to the Abraham Accords, Israel might sell the Iron Dome system to Morocco, but that would take years of negotiation, and sales are subject to a U.S. veto.
According to Morocco, any country is vulnerable to drone attack. In their case, they assert that they are in danger from the deployment of drones by the illegitimate and secessionist Polisario group, supported by the Algerian junta in Algiers.
Morocco is right to be worried, but so is the world. Drones are a lethal infection, spreading fast.
