The ruling United Democratic Alliance, led by President William Ruto, will face off with the Democracy for the Citizens Party in the July 16 Ol Kalou by-election, setting up a high-stakes political contest in Nyandarua County.
The mini-poll is shaping up as an early test of strength between UDA and DCP, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
The by-election offers a chance to gauge Gachagua’s party’s mobilization capacity and signal its influence in the Mt Kenya region. For UDA, it is an opportunity to reaffirm its grip on a region that is increasingly showing signs of political fragmentation.
UDA has handed its ticket to Samuel Muchina Nyaga, a long-serving aide to the late Ol Kalou MP David Njuguna Kiaraho, a move that underscores the party’s strategy of banking on continuity and established grassroots networks.
On the other side, DCP has fronted Sammy Kamau Ngotho, the runner-up in the 2022 general election, where he lost to Kiaraho by about 3,000 votes.
Ngotho, a close ally of Gachagua, previously served as the first MCA for Karau Ward between 2013 and 2017. He later contested the Ol Kalou parliamentary seat on a UDA ticket in 2022 before shifting allegiance.
Following Gachagua’s political fallout and subsequent impeachment, Ngotho briefly served as his political adviser and now holds the position of DCP coordinator in Nyandarua.
Ngotho secured the DCP ticket after a competitive nomination that attracted several aspirants, reflecting growing interest in the party’s foothold in the region.
Ol Kalou constituency has a registered voter population of 72,997 across five wards, based on the 2022 register. Turnout in the by-election will be closely watched as a barometer of shifting political dynamics in Nyandarua and the wider Mt Kenya region, especially amid reports of low participation in recent party nomination exercises.
With both UDA and DCP framing the contest as a referendum on their regional influence, the outcome is likely to carry significance beyond the constituency. It could offer early signals on political alignments ahead of the 2027 general election.
Attention is also turning to the Jubilee Party, which is yet to declare its candidate. The late Kiaraho was elected on a Jubilee ticket, despite being a strong supporter of President Ruto, making the party’s next move a key factor in shaping the race.
There is also growing interest in whether the broader opposition coalition will unite behind the DCP candidate or field separate contenders—an outcome that could significantly influence the final result.
