Kenya’s food security, strained public finances and costly infrastructure needs face growing pressure as global warming exceeds 1.5°C, a new United Nations Environment Programme report warns.
The Limiting Overshoot – Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return report says the world is likely to cross the 1.5°C threshold in the coming years. This is even with an optimistic scenario based on current government pledges pointing to peak warming of about 1.8°C.
The study released this month warns every additional fraction of warming and every year spent above 1.5°C will increase risks to food systems, infrastructure, economies and public finances.
This warning comes at a time climate shocks are already putting pressure on vulnerable households and government resources in the country.
The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification assessment released this week estimates that 2.7 million people in arid and semi-arid lands are facing Crisis-level food insecurity or worse between July and October 2026. This includes 348,000 persons in Emergency conditions. The number represents a 55 per cent increase from the previous analysis.
The deterioration has been linked to erratic rainfall, slow recovery of livelihoods and inadequate humanitarian assistance.
The National Drought Management Authority has also warned of deteriorating drought conditions in nine Asal counties, including Turkana, Garissa, Baringo, West Pokot, parts of Nyeri, Kitui, Makueni, Tana River and Isiolo.
The drought situation reflects type of recurring climate shocks Unep says could become more difficult to manage.
The report projects that global food production could fall by up to 14 per cent by 2050 without effective adaptation. It says extreme heat will affect crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry, while repeated droughts can result in lasting food insecurity, undernutrition, child stunting and impaired human development.
Kenya remains exposed because much of its agriculture remains dependent on rainfall. The World Food Programme says about 95 per cent of crop production is rain-fed, while Asals account for about 80 per cent of the country’s land.
President William Ruto has already addressed the matter, saying he has also been affected personally.
“Even in my home farm, my maize dried up. That has happened to most farmers in the country. This is as a result of climate change,” Ruto said.
The President noted that the crop failure situation was yet another reminder of the need for Kenya to reduce its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and expand irrigation and water harvesting.
He said the proposed National Infrastructure Fund would support the construction of 50 large dams, 200 medium-sized dams and 1,000 smaller water projects as part of the government’s irrigation and water-harvesting plan.
Poor harvests are expected to lead to high food prices, reduce rural incomes and raise demand for government assistance, while drought will weaken livestock-dependent economies.
Unep warns this creates a wider fiscal problem, with climate vulnerability increasing sovereign borrowing costs.
According to the study, shocks are likely to push governments to borrow at higher rates to finance reconstruction and relief. Rising debt-service costs subsequently crowd out spending on adaptation and development, leaving countries even more exposed to the next shock.
Public finances are already constrained in the country, with the African Development Bank’s 2026 Kenya Country Focus Report estimating public and publicly guaranteed debt at 69.9 per cent of GDP in 2025. AfDB adds Kenya faces an annual development financing requirement of $14.2 billion, with an estimated financing gap of $12.5 billion by 2030.
The continental bank cites constrained fiscal space, elevated debt-service obligations and weak public investment efficiency among the obstacles to financing infrastructure, climate resilience and development.
The World Bank has similarly warned that Kenya’s public debt remains at high risk of distress, with interest payments absorbing about a third of tax revenue.
Unep also warns that infrastructure will face increasing financial stress as warming intensifies.
The World Bank said this month that Kenya is preparing to access about $400 million in emergency financing to respond to multiple shocks, including El Niño-related risks to agriculture and water resources, alongside other economic pressures.
The report calls for adaptation and emissions reduction to advance together, with infrastructure, agriculture and development planning redesigned for a warmer and more uncertain climate.
