Politics qualifies as a highly exciting activity in any environment.
I was 11 years old turning 12 when Kenya excitedly ushered in Mwai Kibaki in that globally award-winning optimism 2002 period.
In 2007, I was now 16 headed to 17, as Kibaki injected all means to retain power. Again, Kenya’s political excitement was at fever-pitch, eventually morphing into the largest political disaster in post-independent Kenya.
At 22, in 2013, I voted in my Karatina backyard joined by an excessively eager ethnic population keen on having Uhuru Kenyatta in State House.
The 2017 General Election had its visible share of exhilaration among opposition ranks in the near reality of accessing power, and 2022 happened and we are now stuck with a government applying all tactics to dilute the impact of a youth-led revolution.
I am now 33 with my 34th year in sight already absorbing content on the possible dynamics in the 2027 elections. That trajectory, my dear reader, forms the danger of distractions in politics.
In every election cycle, at least three major scenarios pan out.
THE POWER PLAYERS
On one end is a group keen on holding power. This cohort detains its resources and supporters in a feverish atmosphere as entire energy is directed towards supporter retention and protection. The other lot has hopes in capturing power and calling the shots.
In this second squad, there maybe elements keen on injecting new governance models inclusive of reformist ideologies. The third lot may manifest as a disillusioned category not keen on any side and one that can easily withdraw from the polls.
All these stakeholders possess individual reasons behind their attitude towards elections. Strangely, they provide energy for the political class and allow power brokers a chance using the support to confidently play at the political chess table.
If the average Kenyan starts off in 1992 believing that a reformist will edge out the system and advance cutting reforms in governance approaches, a number of scenarios can pan out.
Let us take this average Kenyan as a mid-scale farmer or a public school teacher. The farmer wants better returns for their produce, better roads to facilitate efficient transport of produce, easy access to farm inputs, and guaranteed returns paid on time.
If the government they elected in 1992 goes for the standard two terms and fails to register the wins, the farmer finds him/herself raising enthusiasm in the 2002 elections. The cycle proceeds to 2022.
For the teacher, agitation for pay rise happen in every administration. At one instance, the powers that be buy off their union leaders. The teachers have to determine ways of restrengthening their union. Agitation for pay gets diverted to health insurance fights, especially around insurer efficiency. The teacher retires in 2022. This educationist now fights for pension, having left an education sector stuck at basic teacher issues.
Politicians access their benefits immediately on election. Their influence, especially over the executive means capacity to tweak any policy to immediately favour them. In the Kenyan situation, pampered politicians can still extort the executive and get away with it.
It is possible for industrial committees to profile public agencies under them and run extortion rings. Consequences of ignoring legislative extortionists include facing legislative sanctions in the form of punishing laws.
The leaders can fulfil their ambitions from many angles including founding industrial companies and accessing favour from governmental agencies. Yet, those who support them can only wish to fulfill their modest ambitions. Distracted at every election cycle, the masses sign and sign out of their active lives distraught.
RAILA ODINGA’S CAREER
Raila Odinga is one of Kenya’s most successful politicians. Many would agree that he has had a stellar career as a public figure. This universal agreement gains currency even in his recurrent failure to capture the presidency. Why is this so?
Raila long learnt to view politics as a business function. He has successfully run a business model dependent on political games. Of the five political administrations in power since 1963, Raila has been part of four of them.
Someone who has passionately supported the ‘Baba’ of Kenya’s politics since 1997 may be suffering his 27th year in desolation having ‘lost’ in all cycles. On the political table, Baba gladly joins the political gangs in government putting the supporter on ‘pause-mode’ to the next election. At no single time has Raila been coerced to join his political tormentors. The agonizing soul, back-to-back, has been the average supporter.
Therein, folks, lays the political distraction effect. The average Kenyan eagerly joins in at early adulthood full of hope but signs out in old frustrated age having suffered everything.
We hope the energetic Generation (Gen Z) will urgently put an end to this heart wrenching reality.
Dennis Mwangi is a writer and comments on politics
