Increased conflicts and insecurity, particularly the humanitarian emergency in the Sudan, the continued effects of the severe 2020–23 drought, and widespread macroeconomic instability are driving an extremely concerning food insecurity and malnutrition situation in 2024, a regional report says.
The IGAD Regional Focus of the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises found that 62.9 million people or 25% of the analysed population face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2024 in seven countries in the Horn of Africa.
Among these are 11 .4 million children under five years, who are acutely malnourished with 2 .8 million of them suffering the most severe form.
The conflict has also left 25 million people forcibly displaced by June 2024, consisting of 20 million Internally Displaced Persons and 5 million refugees and asylum seekers.
The report also found that while El Niño-induced enhanced rainfall improved food security in many areas, especially in Kenya, floods caused significant displacement and affected cropping seasons in many places in the region.
In the Sudan, over a year of conflict-driven humanitarian disaster has led to the worst levels of acute food insecurity ever recorded by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification IPC in the country.
The Famine Review Committee (FRC) found it plausible that Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing from July 2024 and will continue to at least October in Zamzam camp near El Fasher town in North Dafur.
If the conflict escalates, increased militia mobilization will further restrict humanitarian access and hinder farming and casual labour activities during the 2024 cropping season.
IGAD Regional Focus of the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises
“This signifies a multi-sectoral collapse with basic human needs for health services, water, food, nutrition, shelter, and protection not being met. While uncertainty remains, the FRC finds a high likelihood of Famine in Zamzam camp beyond October and that 13 other areas throughout the Sudan remain at risk of Famine as long as the conflict and limited humanitarian access continue,” the report found.
From June–September 2024, some 755, 300 people in the Sudan face Catastrophe, and the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity has increased from 20.3 million during the 2023 lean season to 25.6 million during the 2024 lean season, representing some 5.3 million additional people.
“If the conflict escalates, increased militia mobilization will further restrict humanitarian access and hinder farming and casual labour activities during the 2024 cropping season,” it added.
The conflict has caused mass displacement, disrupted supply routes and agricultural production, and limited access to humanitarian aid, worsening the already dire crisis. The situation is particularly critical in areas directly affected by the conflict in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Khartoum, and Al Jazirah states.
With 10.7 million IDPs, the Sudan faces the world’s worst internal displacement crisis, which has increased competition for resources and weakened socioeconomic structures, intensifying the pressure on available food sources and services.
ETHIOPIA
The food security situation worsened in Ethiopia as households in northeastern Amhara and Tigray grappled with little to no food stocks following the El Niño-induced drought.
The drought led to the failure of the 2023 Meher harvest and heavy rainfall led to localized flooding, predominantly in areas of the Somali, Afar and Oromia regions resulting in displacement and livestock deaths.
Conflict was also a significant factor in parts of Amhara and Oromia.
UGANDA
Deteriorations were also recorded in Uganda due to the impacts of a multi-season drought, including an early start to the lean season, and low household coping capacity in Karamoja region.
SOUTH SUDAN
According to the report, South Sudan recorded a slight reduction in populations in IPC Phase 3 or above since the 2023 peak due to above-average rains in most parts of the country and favourable 2023/24 harvests.
However, acute food insecurity is expected to become more severe with a projected rise in the number of people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), a third of whom are returnees from the Sudan.
Some 79 000 people were projected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in April–July 2024 compared with 43 000 during the same period in 2023.
IMPROVEMENTS IN KENYA, SOMALIA
In 2024, there are some notable improvements such as in Kenya with a 64 percent reduction in the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to favourable rains, a positive harvest, and improved livestock production, the report found.
Similarly, Somalia experienced improvements due to increased rainfall over the past three seasons and sustained humanitarian assistance.
“No populations were in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) but the lingering impacts of the 2020–2023 drought, high food prices, conflict and riverine flooding in April and May 2024 increased levels of acute food insecurity in localized areas,” IT SAID.
DJIBOUTI
While the overall situation in Djibouti remains similar to 2023 levels, the severity of acute food insecurity has decreased with the numbers of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nearly halved.
However, the situation is expected to be especially concerning for the rural populations in Ali Sabieh, Obock, Tadjourah and Arta regions, as well as in the country’s refugee camps, the report says.
The report is the result of a collaboration between the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) and IGAD, a regional economic community that forms one of the building blocks of the African Union.
It provides a comprehensive assessment of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in the eight IGAD countries as well as trends over time, key drivers and populations of highest concern based on a rigorous methodology.
