Raila’s peace mission in South Sudan faces headwinds

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga peace mediation in South Sudan is facing various setbacks even before it takes off.

South Sudan Presidential spokesperson David Majur on Sunday denied Raila’s claim that it is on President Salva Kiir’s recommendation that he went to see Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni.

Instead, Majur said, Raila was already scheduled to meet Museveni and report back to President William Ruto and Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed.

“What he (Raila) said, that he was sent or that he was instructed to go and talk to President Museveni, did not happen because he was already pre-arranged to consult the region,” Majur said, setting a diplomatic setback to Raila’s IGAD peace mission after his first trip to Juba on Friday.

He added that any suggestion that President Kiir requested Raila to meet with the President of Uganda is misrepresenting diplomatic norms and principles.

“President Kiir is not an envoy; he is a President. His Excellency did not instruct Raila to meet President Museveni,” Majur added.

At the same time, the African Union Commission chairman Mahmoud Ali Youssouf on Monday announced his decision to deploy the Panel of the Wise for South Sudan Mediation, a move that is likely to overshadow Raila’s efforts.

“To enhance mediation efforts and support the full implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), the Chairperson is dispatching a high-level delegation of the AU Panel of the Wise to Juba to engage with all the stakeholders to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue,” Youssouf said in a statement.

President Ruto on Thursday tapped Raila as IGAD special envoy to South Sudan “to engage and try deescalate” the situation and avoid another civil war.

Ruto said the appointment of Raila followed consultations with President Museveni and PM Abiy.

The President also announced he had a phone call with Sudan President Salva Kiir on the situation leading to the arrest and detention of First Vice President. Riek Machar, a situation that escalated political and security tensions in Juba.

The government on Friday said Machar was being investigated on charges of trying to stir up rebellion, confirming that the government-sanctioned home arrest.

Raila was barred from meeting Machar.

While Raila said he held a productive meeting with President Salva Kiir, his efforts to meet Machar, a key stakeholder in the 2018 peace agreement, proved futile.

“… on an IGAD mission, I had a detailed and fruitful discussion with my brother, H.E President Salva Kiir, in Juba, South Sudan, regarding the political situation in the country. I am encouraged by the possibility of a resolution to the conflict. I will be briefing other regional leaders and President William Ruto on my mission and a possible roadmap to sustainable peace and stability,” Raila said.

“I asked to be allowed to talk to Dr Machar, but they were not able to let me see him. They recommended that I meet with (Ugandan) President Yoweri Museveni and update him on the situation,” he said.

Raila left Juba for Entebbe, where he met Uganda President Yoweri Museveni, whom he briefed on his findings.

However, President Museveni is already conflicted in the South Sudan crisis, after sending troops to back South Sudan Armed Forces in the Upper Nile against the White Army, which is linked to Machar.

Through a letter, Machar has protested to the UN, the AU and IGAD against the deployment of the forces, saying it contravenes the 2018 peace agreement.

He accused Uganda of violating international agreements by deploying troops without approval from South Sudan’s transitional government.

The letter was addressed to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, AU Peace and Security Council Commissioner Bankole Adeoye, and Djibouti’s President and IGAD chair Ismail Omar Guelleh.

Machar, who leads the main opposition group in government SPLM/A-IO, said Uganda’s troops presence breaches the 2018 peace deal, which mandates the withdrawal of foreign forces.

He cited violations of Articles 2.1.5 and 2.1.7, as well as a 2017 ceasefire deal. The letter also accused Uganda of carrying out airstrikes in Upper Nile and Jonglei states, allegedly targeting civilians.

Raila’s attempts also come after the stalling of the Tumaini Initiative talks that were held in Nairobi for 11 months.

The Tumaini Initiative was launched in May 2024, and brings on board the holdout groups that did not sign the 2018 peace agreement.

Their demands are a new interim government, justice sector reforms and establishment of a Hybrid Court of South Sudan. Others are security re-arrangement and a unified army, reconstitution of Strategic Defence and Security Review Board and restructuring of government to accommodate them.

On February 20, however, President Ruto announced another “adjournment” of the talks to allow for consultations, indicating a deadlock.